Begin the course

Six theories of truth, and why the fight matters

Correspondence, coherence, pragmatic, consensus, constructivist and deflationary accounts — each answering a different question about what 'true' does.

The full loop: from question to revised theory

Observation, question, hypothesis, prediction, design, controls, measurement, analysis, peer criticism, replication, meta-analysis, revision.

Validity, soundness, and the fallacy field guide

Deduction, induction, abduction, and the recurring shapes of broken reasoning.

Your reasoning has a systematic tilt

Confirmation bias, availability, anchoring, hindsight, Dunning–Kruger, base-rate neglect, survivorship, motivated reasoning.

Base rates, Bayes, and the shape of uncertainty

Conditional probability, prior and posterior, p-values, effect sizes, confidence intervals, regression to the mean.

Taking the irrational mind seriously without surrendering to it

Fast cognition, expert intuition, dreams, meditation, mystical and psychedelic experience — what they can and cannot establish.

Correlation, confounders, and the causal ladder

Sequence, correlation, prediction, intervention, mechanism, and counterfactual reasoning.

Evaluating sources in an age of infinite plausible text

Primary vs secondary sources, incentives, engagement algorithms, and how to interrogate a language model.