Bias is not stupidity
These are efficient shortcuts that pay off in the environments they evolved for and misfire in modern informational ones. Intelligence does not remove them; it makes the rationalisations better.
The most expensive three
Confirmation bias decides which evidence you look at. Availability decides which risks feel real. Base-rate neglect makes rare things feel likely because a story fits.
What actually helps
Not awareness alone. Structure: written predictions, checklists, adversarial collaborators, and decisions made before the outcome is visible.